Reading the BTC 2026 cycle: a data-driven note

Halving-cycle decomposition continues to be the dominant model explaining BTC price action. Our research desk tracks 12 on-chain indicators and 8 derivatives signals across CEGOAT and external venues.

Funding rates remain elevated but not extreme. Open interest is at all-time highs. Realized cap is steepening, consistent with the late-mid-cycle phase.

This is research commentary, not investment advice.